Based on data from the nation’s 30 largest cities, the rate of reported violent crime rate is projected to fall by 0.6 percent, also to the second-lowest point in over 25 years, says the Brennan Center for Justice.
The U.S. is on pace to record the second-lowest violent crime rate in 2017 of any year since 1990, says the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University. Based on data from the nation’s 30 largest cities, the rate of reported violent crime rate is projected to fall by 0.6 percent, also to the second-lowest point in over 25 years, the Washington Post reports. The lowest rate was in 2014. “This result,” the center says, “is driven primarily by stabilization in Chicago and declines in Washington, D.C., two large cities that experienced increases in violence in recent years.” The murder rate is projected to be down 2.5 percent, on-par with the rate in 2009.
While there was a national uptick in violent crime and murder during 2015 and 2016, one driver of those shifts was the sharp increase in killings in two cities, Chicago and Baltimore, which combined made up more than half of the increase in murders from 2014 to 2017. This year, the number of murders in Chicago alone is expected to drop 2.4 percent. It is declines in New York, Houston and Detroit that are driving the overall decrease. “Our data leads us to believe that the upticks in 2015 and 2016 were likely short-term fluctuations,” said Brennan’s Inimai Chettiar, noting that “not enough research has been done to identify the exact catalyst.” Ronal Serpas, former New Orleans police superintendent, said, “In contrast to what we have been hearing from the president and attorney general … all measures of crime and murder are in decline this year. It’s irresponsible to incite public panic based on falsehoods, and it makes our police officers’ jobs harder.”